Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com has a new story up with numbers and analysis stating that Colorado is (currently) the most important state in the presidential campaign.
He finds Obama's movement in the poll to be upward (yippee!) with
Iowa and New Mexico still appear to be outside the range where they can really be considered to be swing states (although the new Big Ten poll shows a tie in the former). Obama could still lose one or both of these states -- but he is unlikely to lose the election because of them. Those states alone, however, are not enough to get Obama to 270 (or 269) Electoral Votes. He needs at least one more state, even if he holds all the Kerry states.
Colorado remains the best bet; it's projecting eight-tenths of a point better than Obama's national numbers. What that means is that, theoretically at least, Obama would still be expected to have a winning elecotral map if he lost the popular vote by 0.8 points. That is why Colorado is so essential; it is the state most likely to be involved in a split result between the popular vote and the Electoral College.
I find this both exciting and SCARE MY PANTS OFF frightening. I'm a Colorado resident, and while in some ways it's nice for the attention to be focused here, what I wouldn't give for Colorado to just be a safe state for Obama.
I just wanted to share some random excitement and anecdotes from the scene here.
Tuesday night I went to a neighborhood organizing meeting. It was the first time I've been able to make it (I have 3 kids), and I was pretty pumped up about being there. I was a little surprised (and maybe disappointed?) that I appeared to be the youngest person there (at the ripe old age of 38). On the one hand, I was thrilled to see all the gray hair, and on the other hand, I was wondering where all my young neighbors, fellow moms, etc. were. (And I made a note to myself to apply some power of persuasion to get them out this weekend.)
I'm sure y'all know that Colorado had the most voter contacts last weekend, but did you know that we beat states with three and four times our population? It's scary that it's close here, but it's amazing how much work is being done! We were told at the Tues. meeting that this coming weekend, we (Colorado) are in a head to head competition with the state of Virginia for the most voter contacts this weekend. (And the person who knocks on the most doors gets to meet Senator Obama the next time he swings through Colorado. It won't be me... I won't be able to knock on the THREE HUNDRED DOORS that the winner of last weekend's competition achieved... not unless I deploy the troops, er, I mean kids.)
Last night, I did Neighbor to Neighbor canvassing with a big group of friends (in honor of one friend's birthday--isn't it sweet that instead of us just going out and celebrating her, we walked around her neighborhood and celebrated Barack Obama? We were mostly running into people who were supporting Obama (and Udall), though we did register two people for mail-in ballots. At one address, the person we were looking for had moved, and the current occupant said, "Wait a minute, I have something to show you." and closed the door. He returned with a Palin button. We laughed, thanked him, and marked that house off (as occupant moved). The most rewarding experience came at the next house (of course)--the person we were looking for had moved, but... the new occupants had moved recently. From South Carolina. They were so happy to re-register (conveniently!) in Colorado, where their Democratic votes would mean something.
This weekend, I will be phone banking. I'm trying to round up as many people as I can to take with me. I have to say, this helps with campaign jitters. :>)